Let’s take the 12-month bar graphs of Kirk­land con­dos sold in 2007 and com­pare them to how many Kirk­land con­dos were for sale on Jan­u­ary 2, 2008 at 9 am. Again, we do this sep­a­rately for zip codes 98033 and 98034.

98033 Zip Code: Con­dos Sold (2007) and For Sale (01/02/2008)

Start­ing at twelve-o-clock, the green seg­ment rep­re­sents the 124 active list­ings as of Jan­u­ary 2, 2008 at 9 am; and the fol­low­ing laven­der seg­ment the 28 homes “in Escrow” (Sub­ject to Inspec­tion, Pend­ing) at the same time. Start­ing with the orange seg­ment begins the year 2007 with 29 homes sold in January.

The idea behind this pie-chart is to exam­ine the “absorp­tion rate,” i.e., how long will it take to absorb (sell) the homes cur­rently for sale. Tak­ing a look back it would take about three months to sell all but 10 of the homes for sale at the begin­ning of 2008. That’s if we assume the same num­ber of sales as in the first three months of 2007 (114 homes sold).

Declin­ing condo sales in the last three months of any year are nor­mal. Usu­ally condo sales pick up again after the new year. Will 2008 repeat that pat­tern? What if the drop in sales toward the fall and win­ter of 2007 con­tin­ues in to the first months of 2008? Then it will take nearly five months to sell those same 124 condos.

98034 Zip Code: Con­dos Sold (2007) and For Sale (01/02/2008)

The 2007 Kirk­land condo sales pat­tern for the 98034 zip code is sim­i­lar to the 98033 zip. And, it rep­re­sents the same ques­tion? Will we see the same January-sold jump as in 2007?

Note: the source for these graphs and related bar graphs is the North­west Mul­ti­ple List­ing Ser­vice (NWLS). The trans­la­tion of the data to graphs is mine and so are any errors.

As we enter 2008, let’s take a quick peek in the rear view mir­ror, specif­i­cally at Kirk­land con­dos by two zip codes: 98033 (down­town Kirk­land and mostly west of I-405) and 98034 (fur­ther north, like Juanita area and east of I-405, like Kings­gate area).

98033 Zip Code Kirk­land Condo Sales

Sales in this more expen­sive and, thus more pres­ti­gious, of the two zip codes peaked in March and dropped off con­sid­er­ably after July. This is not abnor­mal but the arrival of the first bad news about the sub-prime mort­gage surely played a role in the rate of the drop in sales.

98034 Zip Code Kirk­land Condo Sales

In the 98034 zip code, sales show an unusual three 4-month cycle with the first peak in March (nor­mal) and a sec­ond peak in Augusts — per­haps the “last hur­rah” for the year. After Sep­tem­ber, the mort­gage malaise, real or imag­ined, put sales in a steeper than usual decline.

More of the same for Kirk­land Sin­gle Fam­ily Homes to follow.